Treasury Bond ETF's Premium to NAV dropped to -0.01, in the past this led to a increase in price

SGOV Sep 13, 2024

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Valuations indicators for IShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF dropped. Historically, this led to a median increase in IShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF price of 0.02% over the following 6M, as shown in the chart below. TOGGLE analyzed 17 similar occasions in the past to produce the median projection and the confidence band below (How do you do this?), most recently on 2024-07-31. This insight received 6 out of 8 stars (What are stars?) in our quality assessment.

The chart above shows the expected path (dotted line) based on performance during similar episodes in the past (How do you do this?). The shaded area represents a confidence band (What is a confidence band?) and the actual price typically stays within those boundaries. The horizontal green line indicates the level the asset is expected to reach. The horizontal red line is exactly 50% of the level of the green line, in the opposite direction. Professional traders often set a price level they expect to reach, and use 50% of that level in the opposite direction as a way to start thinking about a possible stop-loss level (What is a stop-loss?). For Toggle insights, the red line signifies the point where price action has deviated too far from the expected path and the insight is considered invalidated.